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Article Dans Une Revue Annual Reviews in Control Année : 2021

The Ockham's razor applied to COVID-19 model fitting French data

Résumé

This paper presents a data-based simple model for fitting the available data of the Covid-19 pandemic evolution in France. The time series concerning the 13 regions of mainland France have been considered for fitting and validating the model. An extremely simple, two-dimensional model with only two parameters demonstrated to be able to reproduce the time series concerning the number of daily demises caused by Covid-19, the hospitalizations, intensive care and emergency accesses, the daily number of positive tests and other indicators, for the different French regions. These results might contribute to stimulate a debate on the suitability of much more complex models for reproducing and forecasting the pandemic evolution since, although relevant from a mechanistic point of view, they could lead to nonidentifiability issues.
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Dates et versions

hal-03014669 , version 1 (19-11-2020)
hal-03014669 , version 2 (11-01-2021)

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Mirko Fiacchini, Mazen Alamir. The Ockham's razor applied to COVID-19 model fitting French data. Annual Reviews in Control, 2021, 51, pp.500-510. ⟨10.1016/j.arcontrol.2021.01.002⟩. ⟨hal-03014669v2⟩
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