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Mécanismes d’émergence des maladies infectieuses : étude par la modélisation du rôle de la protection de groupe, dans des populations hôtes homogènes ou structurées spatialement

Abstract : The study presented here aims to suggest and to test several mechanisms to explain how infectious diseases impact could increase, in relation to microparasite circulation and loss of herd protection. We first introduce the main characteristics of host/microparasite interaction and display some knowledge about emerging infectious diseases, and their consequences for diseases control. Stochastic modelling is then used to study epidemic patterns under several hypotheses and for different host/parasite systems: i) we explain canine distemper emergence in Serengeti lions through a break in virus circulation and the resulting loss of herd immunity; ii) we study the consequences of partial crossprotection induced in hosts by different strains in a small homogeneous host population; and iii) we extend this study to spatially structured host populations to explain data observed in lagomorphs/lagoviruses in France.
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https://theses.hal.science/tel-00705295
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Submitted on : Thursday, June 7, 2012 - 11:47:20 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, October 18, 2022 - 4:19:48 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Saturday, September 8, 2012 - 6:20:10 AM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00705295, version 1

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Micheline Guiserix. Mécanismes d’émergence des maladies infectieuses : étude par la modélisation du rôle de la protection de groupe, dans des populations hôtes homogènes ou structurées spatialement. Sciences agricoles. Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I, 2009. Français. ⟨NNT : 2009LYO10094⟩. ⟨tel-00705295⟩

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