R. B. Alley, Abrupt climate change, Science, vol.299, 2003.

S. An and B. Wang, Interdecadal Change of the Structure of the ENSO Mode and Its Impact on the ENSO Frequency*, Journal of Climate, vol.13, issue.12, pp.2044-2055, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2044:ICOTSO>2.0.CO;2

S. An and F. Jin, Collective Role of Thermocline and Zonal Advective Feedbacks in the ENSO Mode*, Journal of Climate, vol.14, issue.16, pp.3421-3432, 2001.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3421:CROTAZ>2.0.CO;2

S. An and F. Jin, Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of ENSO*, Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.12, pp.2399-2412, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2399:NAAOE>2.0.CO;2

S. An, Y. Ham, J. Kug, F. Jin, and I. Kang, El Ni??o???La Ni??a Asymmetry in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Simulations*, Journal of Climate, vol.18, issue.14, pp.2617-2627, 2005.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3433.1

S. An, J. Kug, Y. Ham, and I. Kang, Successive Modulation of ENSO to the Future Greenhouse Warming, Journal of Climate, vol.21, issue.1, pp.3-21, 2008.
DOI : 10.1175/2007JCLI1500.1

S. An, Interannual Variations of the Tropical Ocean Instability Wave and ENSO, Journal of Climate, vol.21, issue.15, 2008.
DOI : 10.1175/2008JCLI1701.1

S. An, A review of interdecadal changes in the nonlinearity of the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol.115, issue.9, pp.29-40, 2009.
DOI : 10.1007/s00704-008-0071-z

S. An and J. Choi, Seasonal locking of the ENSO asymmetry and its influence on the seasonal cycle of the tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature, Atmospheric Research, vol.94, issue.1, pp.3-9, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.029

K. Ashok, S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata, El Ni??o Modoki and its possible teleconnection, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.10, issue.D8, p.11007, 2007.
DOI : 10.1029/2006JC003798

K. Ashok and T. Yamagata, Climate change: The El Ni??o with a difference, Nature, vol.325, issue.7263, pp.481-484, 2009.
DOI : 10.1038/461481a

T. P. Barnett, D. Pierce, M. Latif, D. Dommenget, and R. Saravanan, Interdecadal interactions between the tropics and midlatitudes in the Pacific Basin, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.25, issue.5, pp.621-648, 1999.
DOI : 10.1029/1999GL900042

T. P. Barnett, G. Hergerl, T. Knutson, and S. Tett, Uncertainty levels in predicted patterns of anthropogenic climate change, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.14, issue.11, pp.15525-15542, 2000.
DOI : 10.1029/2000JD900162

D. S. Battisti and A. C. Hirst, Interannual variability in the tropical atmosphereocean model: influence of the basic state, ocean geometry and nonlineary, J. Atmos. Sci, vol.45, pp.1687-1712, 1989.

A. Belmadani, B. Dewitte, and S. An, ENSO Feedbacks and Associated Time Scales of Variability in a Multimodel Ensemble, Journal of Climate, vol.23, issue.12, pp.3181-3204
DOI : 10.1175/2010JCLI2830.1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00766394

B. Blanke, J. D. Neelin, and D. Gutzler, Estimating the Effect of Stochastic Wind Stress Forcing on ENSO Irregularity, Journal of Climate, vol.10, issue.7, pp.1473-1486, 1997.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1473:ETEOSW>2.0.CO;2

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01143324

B. Blanke, M. Arhan, A. Lazar, and G. Prévost, A Lagrangian numerical investigation of the origins and fates of the salinity maximum water in the Atlantic, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.5, issue.8, pp.316310-1029, 2002.
DOI : 10.1029/2002JC001318

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00172796

J. Bjerknes, A possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature, Tellus, vol.18, pp.820-829, 1966.

J. Bjerknes, Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific, Mon. Wea. Rev, vol.9, pp.163-172, 1969.

J. Boucharel, El Niño: processus instationnaire ou à variance infinite ?, 2007.

J. Boucharel, B. Dewitte, B. Garel, and Y. Du-penhoat, ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, vol.16, issue.4, pp.453-473, 2009.
DOI : 10.5194/npg-16-453-2009

J. P. Boulanger and C. Menkes, Long equatorial wave reflection in the Pacific Ocean from TOPEX/POSEIDON data during the 1992-1998 period, Climate Dynamics, vol.15, issue.3, pp.205-225, 1999.
DOI : 10.1007/s003820050277

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00772197

J. P. Boulanger, S. Cravatte, and C. Menkes, Reflected and locally wind-forced interannual equatorial Kelvin waves in the western Pacific Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.107, issue.C10, pp.10-1029, 2003.
DOI : 10.1029/2002JC001760

G. E. Box and D. A. Pierce, Distribution of Residual Autocorrelations in Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average Time Series Models, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.11, issue.332, pp.1509-1526, 1970.
DOI : 10.1098/rsta.1927.0007

G. E. Box and G. M. Jenkins, Time series analysis: forecasting and control, p.pp, 1970.
DOI : 10.1002/9781118619193

P. Braconnot, M. Loutre, B. Dong, S. Joussaume, and P. , Valdes and PMIP participating groups, 2002: How the simulated change in monsoon at 6 ka BP is related to the simulation of the modern climate: results from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project, Clim. Dynam, vol.19, issue.2, pp.107-121

G. Burgers, D. B. Stephenson, M. A. Cane, and E. S. Sarachik, The normality of El Niño The Response of a Linear Baroclinic Equatorial Ocean to Periodic Forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett. Journal of Marine Research, vol.26, issue.394, pp.651-693, 1981.

M. A. Cane and Y. Du-penhoat, The Effect of Islands on Low-Frequency Equatorial Motions, J. Mar. Res, vol.40, issue.4, pp.937-962, 1982.

M. A. Cane and M. Evans, Climate variability: Do the tropics rule? Science, pp.1107-1108, 2000.

M. A. Cane, Decadal predictions in demand, Nature Geoscience, pp.231-232, 2010.

X. J. Capet, P. Marchesiello, and J. C. Mcwilliams, Upwelling response to coastal wind profiles, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.45, issue.C10, pp.10-1029, 2004.
DOI : 10.1029/2004GL020123

A. Capotondi, M. A. Alexander, and C. Deser, Why Are There Rossby Wave Maxima in the Pacific at 10??S and 13??N?, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.33, issue.8, pp.1549-1563, 2003.
DOI : 10.1175/2407.1

S. Carr, X. Capet, J. Mcwilliams, J. T. Pennington, and F. P. Chavez, The influence of diel vertical migration on zooplankton transport and recruitment in an upwelling region: estimates from a coupled behavioral-physical model, Fisheries Oceanography, vol.74, issue.1, pp.1-15, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/0198-0149(82)90001-2

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00495818

J. A. Carton and B. S. Giese, A Reanalysis of Ocean Climate Using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), Monthly Weather Review, vol.136, issue.8, pp.2999-3017, 2008.
DOI : 10.1175/2007MWR1978.1

J. A. Carton, G. Chepurin, X. Cao, and B. S. Giese, A Simple Ocean Data Assimilation Analysis of the Global Upper Ocean 1950???95. Part I: Methodology, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.30, issue.2, pp.294-309, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0485(2000)030<0294:ASODAA>2.0.CO;2

J. M. Chambers, C. L. Mallows, and B. W. Stuck, A Method for Simulating Stable Random Variables, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.6, issue.7, pp.340-344, 1976.
DOI : 10.1080/01621459.1976.10480344

P. Chang, The Role of the Dynamic Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions in Tropical Seasonal Cycle, Journal of Climate, vol.9, issue.12, pp.2973-2985, 1996.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2973:TROTDO>2.0.CO;2

P. Chang, L. Ji, H. Li, and M. Flügel, Chaotic dynamics versus stochastic processes in El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, vol.98, issue.2-4, pp.301-320, 1996.
DOI : 10.1016/0167-2789(96)00116-9

P. Chang, B. S. Giese, L. Ji, H. Seidel, and F. Chang, Decadal change in the south tropical Pacific in a Global Assimilation Analysis, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.10, issue.18, pp.28-3461, 2001.
DOI : 10.1029/2001GL013018

S. A. Changnon, 1999: Impacts of 1997-1998 El Niño generated weather in the United States

F. P. Chavez, A. Bertrand, R. Guevara-carrasco, P. Soler, and J. Csirke, The northern Humboldt Current System: Brief history, present status and a view towards the future, Progress in Oceanography, vol.79, issue.2-4, pp.95-105, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.pocean.2008.10.012

J. Choi, S. An, B. Dewitte, and W. W. Hsieh, Interactive Feedback between the Tropical Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ENSO in a Coupled General Circulation Model, Journal of Climate, vol.22, issue.24, 2009.
DOI : 10.1175/2009JCLI2782.1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00766389

J. A. Church, N. J. White, R. Coleman, K. Lambeck, and J. X. Mitrovica, Estimates of the Regional Distribution of Sea Level Rise over the 1950???2000 Period, Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.13, pp.2609-2625, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2609:EOTRDO>2.0.CO;2

J. A. Church and N. J. White, A 20 th century acceleration in global sea-level rise, 2006.

C. Cibot, E. Maisonnave, L. Terray, and B. Dewitte, Mechanisms of tropical Pacific interannual-to-decadal variability in the ARPEGE/ORCA global coupled model, Climate Dynamics, vol.115, issue.19, 2005.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-004-0513-y

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00280331

A. C. Clement, R. Seager, M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak, An Ocean Dynamical Thermostat, Journal of Climate, vol.9, issue.9, pp.2190-2196, 1996.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2190:AODT>2.0.CO;2

K. M. Cobb, C. D. Charles, R. Edwards, H. Cheng, and M. Kastner, El Ni??o/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium, Nature, vol.424, issue.6946, pp.271-298, 2003.
DOI : 10.1038/nature01779

S. Cravatte, J. Picaut, and G. Eldin, Second and first baroclinic Kelvin modes in the equatorial Pacific at intraseasonal timescales, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.108, issue.C8, pp.1-22, 2003.
DOI : 10.1029/2002JC001511

S. Cravatte, G. Madec, T. Izumo, C. Menkes, and A. Bozec, Progress in the 3-D circulation of the eastern equatorial Pacific in a climate ocean model, Ocean Modelling, vol.17, issue.1, pp.28-48, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ocemod.2006.11.003

M. Croquette, Contribution à l'étude de l'upwelling du Pérou Chili, Thèse de l'Université Toulouse III, 2006.

M. Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World, 2001.

L. Debreu, P. Marchesiello, and P. Penven, Two ways embedding algorithms for a split-explicit free surface model, 2010.

P. Delecluse, M. K. Davey, Y. Kitamura, S. G. Philander, M. Suarez et al., Coupled general circulation modelling of the Tropical Pacific, J. Geophys. Res, vol.103, issue.14, pp.357-373, 1998.

C. Derval, E. Durand, G. Garric, and E. Remy, Dossier d'experimentation, 2005.

C. Deser, M. A. Alexander, and M. S. Timlin, Upper-Ocean Thermal Variations in the North Pacific during 1970???1991, Journal of Climate, vol.9, issue.8, pp.1840-1855, 1996.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1840:UOTVIT>2.0.CO;2

C. Deser, A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell, Pacific Interdecadal Climate Variability: Linkages between the Tropics and the North Pacific during Boreal Winter since 1900, Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.16, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3109:PICVLB>2.0.CO;2

B. Dewitte, S. Purca, S. Illig, L. Renault, and B. Giese, Low-Frequency Modulation of Intraseasonal Equatorial Kelvin Wave Activity in the Pacific from SODA: 1958???2001, Journal of Climate, vol.21, issue.22, pp.6060-6069, 2008.
DOI : 10.1175/2008JCLI2277.1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00409292

T. Dickey, D. Manov, R. Weller, and D. Siegel, Determination of Longwave Heat Flux at the Air-Sea Interface Using Measurements from Buoy Platforms, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, vol.11, issue.4, pp.1057-1078, 1994.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0426(1994)011<1057:DOLHFA>2.0.CO;2

P. N. Dinezio, A. C. Clement, and G. A. Vecchi, Reconciling Theory, Models, and Observations of Tropical Pacific Climate Change, Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys, 2010.

W. H. Dumouchel, On the Asymptotic Normality of the Maximum-Likelihood Estimate when Sampling from a Stable Distribution, The Annals of Statistics, vol.1, issue.5, pp.948-957, 1973.
DOI : 10.1214/aos/1176342516

Y. Du-penhoat and J. Boucharel, Nonlinearity as a key player for ENSO modulation: what do the climate models tell us ? Climate variability in the Tropical Pacific: Mechanisms, modeling and observations, Penhoat and A.V. Kislov, 2010.

B. Efron, The Jackknife, the Bootstrap, and Other Resampling Plans, CBMS-NSF Monographs, pp.1-92, 1982.
DOI : 10.1137/1.9781611970319

C. Eden and A. Timmerman, The influence of the Gal??pagos Islands on tropical temperatures, currents and the generation of tropical instability waves, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.15, issue.4309, pp.10-1029, 2004.
DOI : 10.1029/2004GL020060

J. Emile-geay, M. A. Cane, R. Seager, and P. Almasi, El Ni??o as a mediator of the solar influence on climate, Paleoceanography, vol.18, issue.12, pp.10-1029, 2007.
DOI : 10.1029/2006PA001304

L. L. Fu and A. Cazenave, Satellite altimetry and Earth sciences, a handbook of techniques and applications, International Geophysics Series, vol.69, 2001.

E. Galanti and E. Tziperman, ENSO???s Phase Locking to the Seasonal Cycle in the Fast-SST, Fast-Wave, and Mixed-Mode Regimes, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.57, issue.17, pp.2936-2950, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<2936:ESPLTT>2.0.CO;2

E. Galanti and E. Tziperman, A Midlatitude???ENSO Teleconnection Mechanism via Baroclinically Unstable Long Rossby Waves, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.33, issue.9, pp.1877-1888, 2003.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0485(2003)033<1877:AMTMVB>2.0.CO;2

R. D. Garreaud and D. S. Battisti, Interannual (ENSO) and Interdecadal (ENSO-like) Variability in the Southern Hemisphere Tropospheric Circulation*, Journal of Climate, vol.12, issue.7, pp.2113-2123, 1999.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2113:IEAIEL>2.0.CO;2

G. Gebbie, I. Eisenman, A. Wittenberg, and E. Tziperman, Modulation of Westerly Wind Bursts by Sea Surface Temperature: A Semistochastic Feedback for ENSO, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.64, issue.9, pp.3281-3295, 2007.
DOI : 10.1175/JAS4029.1

J. Gergis, A. Fowler, K. Braganza, J. Risbey, and S. Mooney, Reconstructing El Ni??o???Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from high-resolution palaeoarchives, Journal of Quaternary Science, vol.391, issue.2, pp.707-722, 2006.
DOI : 10.1002/jqs.1070

B. S. Giese and D. E. Harrison, Aspects of the Kelvin wave response to episodic wind forcing, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.9, issue.6, pp.7289-7312, 1990.
DOI : 10.1029/JC095iC05p07289

B. S. Giese and D. E. Harrison, Eastern equatorial Pacific response to three composite westerly wind types, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.9, issue.suppl., pp.3239-3248, 1991.
DOI : 10.1029/90JC01861

A. Gill, Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.100, issue.449, 1980.
DOI : 10.1002/qj.49710644905

V. B. Gnedenko and A. Kolmogorov, Limit distributions for sums of random variables, 1954.

W. M. Gray, Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Frequency. Part I: El Ni??o and 30 mb Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Influences, Monthly Weather Review, vol.112, issue.9, pp.1649-1668, 1984.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1649:ASHFPI>2.0.CO;2

D. Gu and S. G. Philander, Interdecadal Climate Fluctuations That Depend on Exchanges Between the Tropics and Extratropics, Science, vol.275, issue.5301, pp.805-807, 1997.
DOI : 10.1126/science.275.5301.805

T. P. Guilderson and S. D. , Abrupt Shift in Subsurface Temperatures in the Tropical Pacific Associated with Changes in El Ni&ntilde;o, Science, vol.281, issue.5374, pp.240-243, 1998.
DOI : 10.1126/science.281.5374.240

E. Guilyardi, El Ni??o???mean state???seasonal cycle interactions in a multi-model ensemble, Climate Dynamics, vol.115, issue.4, pp.329-348, 2006.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-005-0084-6

E. Guilyardi, A. Wittenberg, A. Fedorov, M. Collins, C. Wang et al., Understanding El Ni??o in Ocean???Atmosphere General Circulation Models: Progress and Challenges, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.90, issue.3, pp.325-340, 2009.
DOI : 10.1175/2008BAMS2387.1

A. Hannachi, D. B. Stephenson, and K. R. Sperber, Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in the ENSO, Climate Dynamics, vol.22, issue.1, pp.382-384, 2003.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-003-0377-6

D. E. Harrison and G. A. Vecchi, Westerly Wind Events in the Tropical Pacific, 1986???95*, Journal of Climate, vol.10, issue.12, pp.3131-3156, 1986.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<3131:WWEITT>2.0.CO;2

D. E. Harrison and P. S. Schopf, Kelvin-Wave-Induced Anomalous Advection and the Onset of Surface Warming in El Ni??o Events, Monthly Weather Review, vol.112, issue.5, pp.923-933, 1984.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<0923:KWIAAA>2.0.CO;2

Y. Hayashi, Space-time spectral analysis and its applications to atmospheric waves, J, 1982.

I. M. Held and B. J. Soden, Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming, Journal of Climate, vol.19, issue.21, pp.5686-5699, 2006.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3990.1

H. H. Hendon, B. Liebmann, and J. D. Glick, Oceanic Kelvin Waves and the Madden???Julian Oscillation, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.55, issue.1, pp.88-101, 1998.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055<0088:OKWATM>2.0.CO;2

G. C. Johnson and M. J. Mcphaden, Interior Pycnocline Flow from the Subtropical to the Equatorial Pacific Ocean*, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.29, issue.12, pp.3073-3089, 1999.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029<3073:IPFFTS>2.0.CO;2

H. Kao and J. Yu, Contrasting Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific Types of ENSO, Journal of Climate, vol.22, issue.3, pp.615-632, 2009.
DOI : 10.1175/2008JCLI2309.1

A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, M. Cane, and M. Blumenthal, Reduced space optimal analysis for historical data sets: 136 years of Atlantic sea surface temperatures, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.46, issue.C13, pp.27835-27860, 1997.
DOI : 10.1029/97JC01734

K. B. Karnauskas, R. Murtugudde, and A. J. Busalacchi, The Effect of the Gal??pagos Islands on the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.37, issue.5, pp.1266-1281, 2007.
DOI : 10.1175/JPO3048.1

K. B. Karnauskas, R. Murtugudde, and A. J. Busalacchi, The Effect of the Gal??pagos Islands on ENSO in Forced Ocean and Hybrid Coupled Models, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.38, issue.11, 2008.
DOI : 10.1175/2008JPO3848.1

K. B. Karnauskas, R. Seager, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, and M. A. Cane, Observed Strengthening of the Zonal Sea Surface Temperature Gradient across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean*, Journal of Climate, vol.22, issue.16, pp.4316-432, 2009.
DOI : 10.1175/2009JCLI2936.1

A. R. Karspeck and M. A. Cane, Tropical Pacific 1976???77 Climate Shift in a Linear, Wind-Driven Model*, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.32, issue.8, pp.2350-2360, 2002.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0485(2002)032<2350:TPCSIA>2.0.CO;2

A. R. Karspeck, R. Seager, and M. A. Cane, Predictability of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability in an Intermediate Model*, Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.14, pp.2842-2850, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2842:POTPDV>2.0.CO;2

W. S. Kessler, M. J. Mcphaden, and K. M. Weikmann, Forcing of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the equatorial Pacific, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.50, issue.C6, pp.613-10631, 1995.
DOI : 10.1029/95JC00382

W. S. Kessler and R. Kleeman, Rectification of the Madden???Julian Oscillation into the ENSO Cycle, Journal of Climate, vol.13, issue.20, pp.3560-3575, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3560:ROTMJO>2.0.CO;2

W. S. Kessler, 2002: Is ENSO a cycle or a series of events?, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.29, pp.10-1029, 2125.

W. S. Kessler, The circulation of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review, Progress in Oceanography, vol.69, issue.2-4, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.pocean.2006.03.009

B. Kim and S. An, Understanding ENSO Regime Behavior under the Increase of Warm-pool Temperature using a Simple ENSO Model, J. Climate, 2011.

B. P. Kirtman and P. S. Schopf, Decadal Variability in ENSO Predictability and Prediction, Journal of Climate, vol.11, issue.11, pp.2804-2822, 1998.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2804:DVIEPA>2.0.CO;2

R. Kleeman, J. P. Maccreary, and B. Klinger, A mechanism for generating ENSO decadal variability, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.11, issue.12, pp.1743-1746, 1999.
DOI : 10.1029/1999GL900352

T. R. Knutson and S. Manabe, Model Assessment of Decadal Variability and Trends in the Tropical Pacific Ocean, Journal of Climate, vol.11, issue.9, pp.2273-2296, 1998.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2273:MAODVA>2.0.CO;2

I. A. Koutrouvelis, Regression-Type Estimation of the Parameters of Stable Laws, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.39, issue.372, 1980.
DOI : 10.1080/01621459.1980.10477573

W. G. Large, J. Mcwilliams, and S. C. Doney, Oceanic vertical mixing: A review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization, Reviews of Geophysics, vol.33, issue.11, pp.363-403, 1994.
DOI : 10.1029/94RG01872

W. G. Large and G. Danabasoglu, Attribution and Impacts of Upper-Ocean Biases in CCSM3, Journal of Climate, vol.19, issue.11, 2006.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3740.1

T. Lee and M. Mcphaden, Increasing intensity of El Ni??o in the central-equatorial Pacific, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.23, issue.14, 2010.
DOI : 10.1029/2010GL044007

R. Legeckis, Long Waves in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean: A View from a Geostationary Satellite, Science, vol.197, issue.4309, pp.1179-1181
DOI : 10.1126/science.197.4309.1179

. Slingo, Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model, Clim. Dynam, vol.23, pp.601-620, 2004.

M. Lengaigne, J. P. Boulanger, C. Menkes, P. Delecluse, and J. Slingo, Westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific and their influence on the coupled ocean-atmosphere system: A review, Amer. Geophys. Union, pp.49-69, 2004.
DOI : 10.1029/147GM03

P. Levy, Théorie des erreurs, les lois de Gauss et les lois exponentielles, 1924.

J. Lin, The Double-ICTZ Problem in IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs, 2007.

W. Liu, K. B. Timothy, J. A. Katsaros, and . Businger, Bulk Parameterization of Air-Sea Exchanges of Heat and Water Vapor Including the Molecular Constraints at the Interface, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.36, issue.9, 1979.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1722:BPOASE>2.0.CO;2

Z. Liu, S. G. Philander, and R. C. Pacanowski, A GCM Study of Tropical???Subtropical Upper-Ocean Water Exchange, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.24, issue.12, pp.2606-2623, 1994.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0485(1994)024<2606:AGSOTU>2.0.CO;2

W. T. Liu, W. Tang, and P. S. Polito, NASA Scatterometer provides global oceansurface wind fields with more structures than numerical weather prediciton, Geophys. Res, 1998.
DOI : 10.1029/98gl00544

Z. Liu, L. Wu, R. Gillmore, and R. Jacob, Search for the origins of Pacific decadal climate variability, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.10, issue.10, pp.140410-1029, 2002.
DOI : 10.1029/2001GL013735

Z. Liu, S. Vavrus, F. He, N. Wen, and Y. Zhong, Rethinking Tropical Ocean Response to Global Warming: The Enhanced Equatorial Warming*, Journal of Climate, vol.18, issue.22, pp.4684-4700, 2005.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3579.1

W. Llovel, S. Guinehut, and A. Cazenave, Regional and interannual variability in sea level over 2002 -2009 based on satellite altimetry, Argo float data and GRACE ocean mass, Ocean Dynamics, 2010.

E. N. Lorenz, Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.20, issue.2, pp.130-141, 1963.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:DNF>2.0.CO;2

R. Lukas, The termination of the Equatorial Undercurrent in the eastern Pacific, Progress in Oceanography, vol.16, issue.2, pp.63-90, 1986.
DOI : 10.1016/0079-6611(86)90007-8

J. Luo and T. Yamagata, Long-term El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variation with special emphasis on the South Pacific, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.10, issue.C10, pp.22211-2222710, 2001.
DOI : 10.1029/2000JC000471

;. J. Lysne, P. Chang, and B. Giese, Impact of the extratropical Pacific on equatorial variability, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.10, issue.21, pp.2589-2592, 1997.
DOI : 10.1029/97GL02751

R. A. Madden and P. R. Julian, Observations of the 40???50-Day Tropical Oscillation???A Review, Monthly Weather Review, vol.122, issue.5, pp.814-837, 1994.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0814:OOTDTO>2.0.CO;2

C. Maes, G. Madec, and P. Delecluse, Sensitivity of an Equatorial Pacific OGCM to the Lateral Diffusion, Monthly Weather Review, vol.125, issue.5, pp.958-971, 1997.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0958:SOAEPO>2.0.CO;2

B. Mandelbrot, The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices, The Journal of Business, vol.36, issue.4, pp.394-419, 1963.
DOI : 10.1086/294632

N. J. Mantua and D. S. Battisti, Evidence for the delayed action oscillator mechanism for ENSO: The " observed " oceanic Kelvin mode in the far western Pacific, J. Phys, 1994.

N. J. Mantua, S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.78, issue.6, pp.1069-1079, 1997.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2

P. Marchesiello, A. F. Shchepetkin, and J. C. Mcwilliams, Equilibrium Structure and Dynamics of the California Current System, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.33, issue.4, pp.753-783, 2003.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0485(2003)33<753:ESADOT>2.0.CO;2

P. Marchesiello, L. Debreu, and X. Couvelard, Spurious diapycnal mixing in terrain-following coordinate models: The problem and a solution, Ocean Modelling, vol.26, issue.3-4, pp.156-169, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.09.004

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00409317

R. Maronna, Y. , and V. J. , A Bivariate Test for the Detection of a Systematic Change in Mean, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.3, issue.363, p.363, 1978.
DOI : 10.1080/01621459.1978.10480070

R. M. May, Simple mathematical models with very complicated dynamics, Nature, vol.29, issue.5560, pp.459-467, 1976.
DOI : 10.1038/261459a0

J. P. Mccreary and P. Lu, Interaction between the subtropical and equatorial ocean circulations: the subtropical cell, J. Phys. Oceanogr, vol.24, pp.466-497, 1994.

J. H. Mcculloch, Simple consistent estimators of stable distribution parameters, Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation, vol.15, issue.4, pp.1109-1136, 1986.
DOI : 10.1080/03610918608812563

M. J. Mcphaden and B. A. Taft, Dynamics of Seasonal and Intraseasonal Variability in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.18, issue.11, pp.1713-1732, 1988.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0485(1988)018<1713:DOSAIV>2.0.CO;2

M. J. Mcphaden, H. P. Freitag, S. P. Hayes, B. A. Taft, Z. Chen et al., The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to a westerly wind burst in May 1986, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.66, issue.C9, 1988.
DOI : 10.1029/JC093iC09p10589

M. J. Mcphaden, Mixed Layer Temperature Balance on Intraseasonal Timescales in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean*, Journal of Climate, vol.15, issue.18, pp.2632-2647, 2002.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2632:MLTBOI>2.0.CO;2

C. R. Mechoso, The Seasonal Cycle over the Tropical Pacific in Coupled Ocean???Atmosphere General Circulation Models, Monthly Weather Review, vol.123, issue.9, pp.2825-2838, 1995.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2825:TSCOTT>2.0.CO;2

G. A. Meehl, P. R. Gent, J. M. Arblaster, B. L. Otto-bliesner, E. C. Brady et al., Factors that affect the amplitude of El Nino in global coupled climate models, Climate Dynamics, vol.17, issue.7, pp.515-526, 2001.
DOI : 10.1007/PL00007929

G. A. Meehl, R. Lukas, G. Kiladis, K. Weickmann, A. Matthews et al., A conceptual framework for time and space scale interactions in the climate system, Climate Dynamics, vol.17, issue.10, pp.753-775, 2001.
DOI : 10.1007/s003820000143

G. A. Meehl, C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. Mcavaney et al., THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.88, issue.9, pp.1383-1394, 2007.
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383

C. S. Meinen and M. J. Mcphaden, Observations of Warm Water Volume Changes in the Equatorial Pacific and Their Relationship to El Ni??o and La Ni??a, Journal of Climate, vol.13, issue.20, pp.3551-3559, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3551:OOWWVC>2.0.CO;2

A. H. Monahan and A. Dai, The Spatial and Temporal Structure of ENSO Nonlinearity, Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.15, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3026:TSATSO>2.0.CO;2

B. K. Moon, S. Yeh, B. Dewitte, J. G. Jhun, I. Kang et al., Vertical structure variability in the equatorial Pacific before and after the Pacific climate shift of the 1970s, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.391, issue.14, pp.3203-3213, 1029.
DOI : 10.1029/2003GL018829

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00765721

B. Moon, S. Yeh, B. Dewitte, J. Jhun, and I. Kang, Source of low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude in a CGCM, Climate Dynamics, vol.11, issue.3, pp.10-1007, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-006-0219-4

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00280339

I. Montes, F. Colas, X. Capet, and W. Schneider, On the pathways of the equatorial subsurface currents in the eastern equatorial Pacific and their contributions to the Peru-Chile Undercurrent, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.1, issue.C3, pp.900310-1029, 2010.
DOI : 10.1029/2009JC005710

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00580614

J. D. Neelin, The slow sea surface temperature mode and the fastwave limit: analytic theory for tropical interannual oscillations and experiments in a hybrid coupled models, J, 1991.

J. D. Neelin and F. Jin, Modes of interannual tropical oceanatmosphere interaction?a unified view. Part II: Analytical results in the weak-coupling limit, 1993.

M. Newman, G. P. Compo, and M. A. Alexander, ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Journal of Climate, vol.16, issue.23, pp.16-3853, 2003.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3853:EVOTPD>2.0.CO;2

Y. Noh, Y. J. Kang, T. Matsuura, and S. Iizuka, Effect of the Prandtl number in the parameterization of vertical mixing in an OGCM of the tropical Pacific, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.27, issue.17, pp.10-1029, 2005.
DOI : 10.1029/2005GL024540

J. P. Nolan, Fitting data and Assessing Goodness-of-fit with Stable Distributions, proceedings of the conference on applications of heavy tailed distributions in economics, engineering and statistics. Department of mathematics and statistics, university of Washington, 1999.

M. Nonaka, S. Xie, and J. P. Mccreary, Decadal variations in the subtropical cells and equatorial pacific SST, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.10, issue.7, pp.10-1029, 1116.
DOI : 10.1029/2001GL013717

Y. M. Okumura, M. Ohba, and C. Deser, A mechanism for asymmetry in the duration of El Niño and La Niña, J. Climate, 2010.

L. Ortlieb and J. Macharé, Former El Ni??o events: records from western South America, Global and Planetary Change, vol.7, issue.1-3, pp.181-202, 1993.
DOI : 10.1016/0921-8181(93)90049-T

URL : http://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/pleins_textes_7/b_fdi_51-52/010015033.pdf

J. Overland, S. Rodionov, S. Minobe, and N. Bond, North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions, Progress in Oceanography, vol.77, issue.2-3, pp.92-102, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.pocean.2008.03.016

D. E. Parker, P. D. Jones, C. K. Folland, and A. Bevan, Interdecadal changes of surface temperature since the late 19 th century, J. Geophys. Res, vol.99, issue.399, pp.377-391, 1994.

P. Penven, L. Debreu, P. Marchesiello, and J. C. Mcwilliams, Evaluation and application of the ROMS 1-way embedding procedure to the central California upwelling system. Ocean Modelling, pp.1-2, 2006.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00280334

C. L. Perez, A. M. Moore, J. Zavala-garay, and R. Kleeman, A Comparison of the Influence of Additive and Multiplicative Stochastic Forcing on a Coupled Model of ENSO, Journal of Climate, vol.18, issue.23, pp.5066-5085, 2005.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3596.1

S. G. Philander, T. Yamagata, and R. C. Pacanowski, Unstable Air-Sea Interactions in the Tropics, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.41, issue.4, pp.604-613, 1984.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1984)041<0604:UASIIT>2.0.CO;2

J. Picaut, F. Masia, and Y. Dupenhoat, An Advective-Reflective Conceptual Model for the Oscillatory Nature of the ENSO, Science, vol.277, issue.5326, pp.663-666, 1997.
DOI : 10.1126/science.277.5326.663

J. Picaut, E. Hackert, A. J. Busalacchi, R. Murtugudde, and G. S. Lagerloef, Mechanisms of the 1997???1998 El Ni??o???La Ni??a, as inferred from space-based observations, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.26, issue.C5, 2002.
DOI : 10.1029/2001JC000850

D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, and M. Latif, Connections between the Pacific Ocean Tropics and Midlatitudes on Decadal Timescales, Journal of Climate, vol.13, issue.6, pp.1173-1194, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1173:CBTPOT>2.0.CO;2

O. Pizarro, A. J. Clarke, and S. Van-gorder, El Ni??o Sea Level and Currents along the South American Coast: Comparison of Observations with Theory, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.31, issue.7, pp.1891-1903, 2001.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0485(2001)031<1891:ENOSLA>2.0.CO;2

O. Pizarro, G. Shaffer, B. Dewitte, and M. Ramos, Dynamics of seasonal and interannual variability of the Peru-Chile Undercurrent, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.29, issue.12, p.10, 1029.
DOI : 10.1029/2002GL014790

K. W. Potter, Illustration of a New Test for Detecting a Shift in Mean in Precipitation Series, Monthly Weather Review, vol.109, issue.9, pp.2040-2046, 1981.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<2040:IOANTF>2.0.CO;2

W. H. Quinn, 1992: A study of Southern Oscillation related climate variability from A.D. 622-1990 incorporating Nile river flood data, El Niño: historial and paleoclimate aspects of the Southern Oscillation, pp.119-149

M. Ramos, B. Dewitte, O. Pizarro, and G. Garric, Vertical propagation of the extratropical Rossby wave during the 1997/98 El Niño off the west coast of South-America in a medium-resolution OGCM simulation, J. Geophys. Res, vol.113, pp.804110-1029, 2008.

D. A. Randall, Climate models and their evaluation. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Eds, pp.589-662, 2007.

E. M. Rasmusson and T. Carpenter, Variations in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Wind Fields Associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Ni??o, Monthly Weather Review, vol.110, issue.5, pp.354-384, 1982.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0354:VITSST>2.0.CO;2

A. Kent and . Kaplan, Global Analyses of SST, Sea Ice and Night Marine Air Temperature Since the Late 19th Century, J. Geophys. Res, vol.108, issue.4407, pp.10-1029, 2003.

R. W. Reynolds and T. M. Smith, Improved Global Sea Surface Temperature Analyses Using Optimum Interpolation, Journal of Climate, vol.7, issue.6, pp.929-948, 1994.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<0929:IGSSTA>2.0.CO;2

K. B. Rodgers, P. Friederichs, and M. Latif, Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Relation to Decadal Modulations of ENSO, Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.19, pp.3761-3774, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3761:TPDVAI>2.0.CO;2

D. Roemmich and W. B. Owens, The Argo Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability, Oceanography, vol.13, issue.2, pp.45-50, 2000.
DOI : 10.5670/oceanog.2000.33

D. Ruelle, F. Takens, P. D. , and P. Sura, On the nature of turbulence, Communications in Mathematical Physics, vol.169, issue.3, pp.167-1193, 1971.
DOI : 10.1007/BF01646553

N. Schneider, A. J. Miller, M. A. Alexander, and C. Deser, Subduction of Decadal North Pacific Temperature Anomalies: Observations and Dynamics, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.29, issue.5, pp.1056-1070, 1999.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029<1056:SODNPT>2.0.CO;2

N. Schneider, S. Venzke, A. J. Miller, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett et al., Pacific thermocline bridge revisited, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.391, issue.9, pp.1329-1332, 1999.
DOI : 10.1029/1999GL900222

N. Schneider, A decadal spiciness mode in the tropics, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.26, issue.2, pp.257-260, 2000.
DOI : 10.1029/1999GL002348

N. Schneider, The Response of Tropical Climate to the Equatorial Emergence of Spiciness Anomalies*, Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.5, pp.1083-1095, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1083:TROTCT>2.0.CO;2

P. S. Schopf and R. J. Burgman, A Simple Mechanism for ENSO Residuals and Asymmetry, Journal of Climate, vol.19, issue.13, pp.3167-3179, 2006.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3765.1

T. Setoh, S. Imawaki, A. Ostrovskii, and S. Umatani, Interdecadal variations of ENSO signals and annual cycles revealed by wavelet analysis, Journal of Oceanography, vol.55, issue.3, pp.385-394, 1999.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1007854415983

G. Shaffer, O. Pizarro, L. Djurfeldt, S. Salinas, and J. Rutlant, Circulation and low frequency variability near the Chile coast: remotely-forced fluctuations during the, 1991.

R. Shaw, Strange Attractors, Chaotic Behavior, and Information Flow, Zeitschrift f??r Naturforschung A, vol.36, issue.1, pp.36-80, 1981.
DOI : 10.1515/zna-1981-0115

A. F. Shchepetkin and J. C. Mcwilliams, Quasi-Monotone Advection Schemes Based on Explicit Locally Adaptive Dissipation, Monthly Weather Review, vol.126, issue.6, pp.1541-1580, 1998.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1541:QMASBO>2.0.CO;2

A. F. Shchepetkin and J. C. Mcwilliams, A method for computing horizontal pressuregradient force in an ocean model with a non-aligned vertical coordinate, J. Geophys. Res, vol.108, issue.3090, pp.10-1029, 2003.

W. H. Smith and D. T. Sandwell, Global seafloor topography from satellite altimetry and ship depth soundings, Science, vol.277, pp.1957-1962, 1997.

T. M. Smith and R. W. Reynolds, Extended Reconstruction of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Based on COADS Data (1854???1997), Journal of Climate, vol.16, issue.10, pp.1495-1510, 2003.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442-16.10.1495

T. M. Smith and R. W. Reynolds, Improved Extended Reconstruction of SST (1854???1997), Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.12, pp.2466-2477, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2466:IEROS>2.0.CO;2

T. M. Smith, R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, Improvements to NOAA's Historical Merged Land-Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis, J, pp.1880-2006, 2008.

K. Sponberg, Navigating the numbers of climatological impact. Compendium of climatologiacl impacts, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, vol.1, issue.13, p.pp, 1999.

T. N. Stockdale, A. J. Busalacchi, D. E. Harrison, and R. Seager, Ocean modeling for ENSO, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.97, issue.C7, pp.325-339, 1998.
DOI : 10.1029/97JC02440

P. T. Strub, J. M. Mesias, V. Montecino, J. Rutllant, and S. Salinas, Coastal Ocean circulation off western South America, The Sea, vol.11, pp.273-313, 1998.

M. J. Suarez and P. S. Schopf, A Delayed Action Oscillator for ENSO, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.45, issue.21, pp.3283-3287, 1988.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<3283:ADAOFE>2.0.CO;2

D. Sun and T. Zhang, A regulatory effect of ENSO on the time-mean thermal stratification of the equatorial upper ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.117, issue.7, 2006.
DOI : 10.1029/2005GL025296

F. Sun and J. Yu, A 10???15-Yr Modulation Cycle of ENSO Intensity, Journal of Climate, vol.22, issue.7, pp.1718-1735, 2009.
DOI : 10.1175/2008JCLI2285.1

C. J. Thompson and D. S. Battisti, A Linear Stochastic Dynamical Model of ENSO. Part II: Analysis, Journal of Climate, vol.14, issue.4, pp.445-466, 2001.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0445:ALSDMO>2.0.CO;2

K. K. Tung and J. Zhou, The Pacific???s Response to Surface Heating in 130 Yr of SST: La Ni??a???like or El Ni??o???like?, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.67, issue.8, pp.2649-2657, 2010.
DOI : 10.1175/2010JAS3510.1

A. Timmermann, Detecting the Nonstationary Response of ENSO to Greenhouse Warming, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.56, issue.14, pp.2313-2325, 1999.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<2313:DTNROE>2.0.CO;2

A. Timmermann, 2003: Decadal ENSO amplitude modulations: a nonlinear paradigm

J. R. Toggweiler, K. Dixon, and W. S. Broecker, The Peru upwelling and the ventilation of the south Pacific thermocline, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.211, issue.C11, pp.467-487, 1991.
DOI : 10.1029/91JC02063

T. Toniazzo, Climate variability in the south-eastern tropical Pacific and its relation with ENSO: a GCM study, Climate Dynamics, vol.12, issue.7-8, pp.1093-1114
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-009-0602-z

K. E. Trenberth and H. J. , Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific, Climate Dynamics, vol.9, issue.6, pp.303-319, 1994.
DOI : 10.1007/BF00204745

A. A. Tsonis, A. G. Hunt, and J. B. Elsner, On the relation between ENSO and global climate change, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, vol.84, issue.3-4, pp.1-14, 2003.
DOI : 10.1007/s00703-003-0001-7

J. M. Lea, G. B. Lough, and . Shimmield, Variability in the El Nino-Southern oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle, Science, vol.291, pp.1511-1517, 2001.

E. Tziperman, L. Stone, M. A. Cane, and H. Jarosh, El Nino Chaos: Overlapping of Resonances Between the Seasonal Cycle and the Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator, Science, vol.264, issue.5155, pp.72-74, 1994.
DOI : 10.1126/science.264.5155.72

E. Tziperman, S. E. Zebial, and M. A. Cane, Mechanisms of Seasonal ??? ENSO Interaction, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.54, issue.1, pp.61-71, 1997.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<0061:MOSEI>2.0.CO;2

F. E. Urban, J. E. Cole, and J. T. Overpeck, Modification of tropical Pacific variability by its mean state inferred from a 155-year coral record, Nature, vol.407, pp.989-993, 2000.

G. J. Van-oldenborgh, S. Y. Philip, and M. Collins, El Ni??o in a changing climate: a multi-model study, Ocean Science, vol.1, issue.2, pp.81-95, 2005.
DOI : 10.5194/os-1-81-2005

G. A. Vecchi and D. E. Harrison, Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, El Ni??o, and Equatorial Westerly Wind Events*, Journal of Climate, vol.13, issue.11, pp.1814-1830, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1814:TPSSTA>2.0.CO;2

G. A. Vecchi and B. J. Soden, Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation, Journal of Climate, vol.20, issue.17, pp.20-4316, 2007.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI4258.1

G. A. Vecchi, A. Clement, and B. J. Soden, Examining the Tropical Pacific's Response to Global Warming, Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, vol.33, issue.5735, pp.81-83, 2008.
DOI : 10.1029/2008EO090002

A. Vega, Y. Du-penhoat, B. Dewitte, and O. Pizarro, Equatorial forcing of interannual Rossby waves in the eastern South Pacific, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.28, issue.5, pp.1197-1200, 2003.
DOI : 10.1029/2002GL015886

D. J. Vimont and D. S. Battisti, Footprinting: A seasonal connection between the tropics and mid-latitudes, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.10, issue.20, pp.3923-3926, 2001.
DOI : 10.1029/2001GL013435

D. J. Vimont, D. S. Battisti, and A. C. Hirst, Pacific Interannual and Interdecadal Equatorial Variability in a 1000-Yr Simulation of the CSIRO Coupled General Circulation Model*, Journal of Climate, vol.15, issue.2, pp.160-178, 2002.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0160:PIAIEV>2.0.CO;2

Y. Wakata and E. S. Sarachik, Unstable Coupled Atmosphere???Ocean Basin Modes in the Presence of a Spatially Varying Basic State, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.48, issue.18, pp.2060-2077, 1991.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<2060:UCABMI>2.0.CO;2

X. L. Wang and C. F. Ropelewski, An Assessment of ENSO-Scale Secular Variability, Journal of Climate, vol.8, issue.6, 1995.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1584:AAOESS>2.0.CO;2

B. Wang and Y. Wang, Temporal Structure of the Southern Oscillation as Revealed by Waveform and Wavelet Analysis, Journal of Climate, vol.9, issue.7, pp.1586-1598, 1996.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1586:TSOTSO>2.0.CO;2

B. Wang and Z. Fang, Chaotic Oscillations of Tropical Climate: A Dynamic System Theory for ENSO, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.53, issue.19, pp.2786-2802, 1996.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<2786:COOTCA>2.0.CO;2

C. Wang and R. H. Weisberg, Stability of Equatorial Modes in a Simplified Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model, Journal of Climate, vol.9, issue.12, pp.3132-3148, 1996.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<3132:SOEMIA>2.0.CO;2

C. Wang, R. H. Weisberg, and J. I. Virmani, Western Pacific interannual variability associated with the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.115, issue.C3, pp.5131-5149, 1999.
DOI : 10.1029/1998JC900090

C. Wang and R. H. Weisberg, The 1997???98 El Ni??o Evolution Relative to Previous El Ni??o Events, Journal of Climate, vol.13, issue.2, pp.488-501, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0488:TENOER>2.0.CO;2

C. Wang, A Unified Oscillator Model for the El Ni??o???Southern Oscillation, Journal of Climate, vol.14, issue.1, pp.98-115, 2001.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0098:AUOMFT>2.0.CO;2

B. Wang and S. An, A mechanism for decadal changes of ENSO behaviour: roles of background wind changes, Clim. Dynam, vol.18, pp.475-486, 2002.

C. Wang and J. Picaut, Understanding ENSO physics???a review, AGU Geophysical Monograph Series, pp.21-48, 2004.
DOI : 10.1029/147GM02

R. H. Weisberg and T. J. Weingartner, Instability Waves in the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.18, issue.11, pp.1641-1657, 1988.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0485(1988)018<1641:IWITEA>2.0.CO;2

R. H. Weisberg and C. Wang, A Western Pacific Oscillator Paradigm for the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.115, issue.7, pp.779-782, 1997.
DOI : 10.1029/97GL00689

M. Wheeler and G. N. Kiladis, Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves: Analysis of Clouds and Temperature in the Wavenumber???Frequency Domain, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.56, issue.3, pp.374-399, 1999.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<0374:CCEWAO>2.0.CO;2

P. H. Whetton and I. Rutherfurd, Historical ENSO teleconnections in the eastern hemisphere, Climatic Change, vol.3, issue.7, pp.221-53, 1994.
DOI : 10.1007/BF01104135

W. B. White, Y. M. Tourré, M. Barlow, and M. Dettinger, A delayed action oscillator shared by biennial, interannual, and decadal signals in the Pacific Basin, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.10, issue.C3, pp.10-1029, 2003.
DOI : 10.1029/2002JC001490

K. Wyrtki, 1963: The horizontal and vertical field of motion in the Peru current, Bull. Scripps Inst. Oceanogr, vol.8, pp.313-344

K. Wyrtki, El Ni??o???The Dynamic Response of the Equatorial Pacific Oceanto Atmospheric Forcing, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.5, issue.4, pp.572-584, 1975.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0485(1975)005<0572:ENTDRO>2.0.CO;2

S. Xie, C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng et al., Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall*, Journal of Climate, vol.23, issue.4, pp.966-986, 2010.
DOI : 10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1

Y. Xue, T. M. Smith, and R. W. Reynolds, Interdecadal Changes of 30-Yr SST Normals during 1871???2000, Journal of Climate, vol.16, issue.10, pp.1601-1612, 2003.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442-16.10.1601

T. Yamagata, Stability of a simple air-sea coupled model in the tropics, In Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models, pp.637-657, 1985.

Z. Ye and W. W. Hsieh, The influence of climate regime shift on ENSO, Climate Dynamics, vol.8, issue.1, 2006.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-005-0105-5

Z. Ye and W. W. Hsieh, Changes in ENSO and Associated Overturning Circulations from Enhanced Greenhouse Gases by the End of the Twentieth Century, Journal of Climate, vol.21, issue.22, pp.5745-5763, 2008.
DOI : 10.1175/2008JCLI1580.1

S. Yeh, J. Kug, B. Dewitte, M. Kwon, B. P. Kirtman et al., El Ni??o in a changing climate, Nature, vol.77, issue.7263, pp.511-514, 2009.
DOI : 10.1038/nature08316

I. Zaliapin and M. Ghil, Another look at climate sensitivity, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, vol.17, issue.2, pp.113-122, 2010.
DOI : 10.5194/npg-17-113-2010

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01136720

S. Zebiak, Atmospheric Convergence Feedback in a Simple Model for El Ni??o, Monthly Weather Review, vol.114, issue.7, 1986.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1263:ACFIAS>2.0.CO;2

S. E. Zebiak and M. A. Cane, A model of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, 1987.

S. Zebiak and M. A. Cane, Natural Climate Variability in a Coupled Model, 1991.
DOI : 10.1016/B978-0-444-88351-3.50036-2

. Schlesinger, Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climatic Change: Critical appraisal of Simulations and Observations, pp.457-470
DOI : 10.2172/10112845

H. Zelle, G. Appeldoorn, G. Burgers, and G. J. Van-oldenborgh, The Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature and Thermocline Depth in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.34, issue.3, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/2523.1

R. H. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and D. Battisti, ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900???93, Journal of Climate, vol.10, issue.5, pp.1004-1020, 1997.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1004:ELIV>2.0.CO;2

R. H. Zhang, L. M. Rothstein, and A. J. Busalacchi, Origin of upper ocean warming and El Niño change on decadal scale in the tropical Pacific ocean, Nature, vol.391, pp.713-723, 1998.

C. Zhang and M. J. Mcphaden, Intraseasonal Surface Cooling in the Equatorial Western Pacific*, Journal of Climate, vol.13, issue.13, pp.2261-2276, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2261:ISCITE>2.0.CO;2