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Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d'équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente

Abstract : Since the mid-1990s, we observe a global increase of current account imbalances. In 2007, before the climax of the financial crisis, they reached 2% of world GDP in absolute value. At the global level, the persistence of large current account imbalances is a threat to the macroeconomic and macrofinancial stability. This thesis analyses this phenomenon of global imbalances by using two complementary approaches: equilibrium exchange rates models and stock-flow consistent models. These two approaches can be considered as complementary insofar as they analyze the same problem from a different point of view. Equilibrium exchange rate models and particularly the FEER approach introduced by Williamson (1994) try to calculate exchange rate variations needed to reach a sustainable current account balance. Stock-flow consistent models à la Godley-Lavoie (2007) seek to analyze adjustments in terms of level of output and exchange rate dynamics in a context of imbalances. A return of large imbalances is not excluded. It appears that an international monetary cooperation aimed at preventing the return of large imbalances at the world and intra-European levels is a necessary condition to ensure global recovery.
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https://theses.hal.science/tel-00758015
Contributor : Jamel Saadaoui Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 - 8:48:33 PM
Last modification on : Saturday, June 25, 2022 - 8:53:03 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Saturday, December 17, 2016 - 4:12:42 PM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00758015, version 1

Citation

Jamel Saadaoui. Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d'équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente. Econométrie de la finance [q-fin.ST]. Université Paris-Nord - Paris XIII, 2012. Français. ⟨NNT : ⟩. ⟨tel-00758015⟩

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