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EVALUATION DE DYSFONCTIONNEMENT D'UN SYSTEME PAR APPROCHE BAYESIENNE : CAS DU SYSTEME FERROVIAIRE

Abstract : The development of railway in urban and non urban, is accompanied by recess continuous improvement of safety, which remains a primary concern in this area of transport, where accidents continue to cause significant damage, and cause a large number of victims. The control of risks of rail transport implies firstly the identification and prediction of risk, and secondly, reducing these risks by acting on ways to decrease their occurrence, their severity, mitigating their consequences by means of avoidance and protection against risks. In this context, the present work of this thesis is to develop an assessment tool and risk analysis at Level Crossings of the Moroccan railway network, which has 521 level crossings with about 80% are not guarded, and the railway network of tram in the cities of Rabat/Salé, which extends on 20 km and which its urban integration has not been without effect on the city, because accidents between the tram and road users whether pedestrians or vehicles, continue to occur and recorded about ten accidents per month of varying severity. The risk analysis of these two systems is based primarily on the functional and dysfunctional studies, then secondly on risk modelling by Bayesian Networks. In fact, the Bayesian approach in evaluating dysfunctions and quantification of the risks constitutes an analysis approach allowing taking into account the behavioural and temporal aspects of the system (events related to human factors or equipment, of random events of accidents, uncontrolled consequences of accidents etc.). The risk model proposed also allows for a risk prediction based on data collected from the past (feedback).
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Submitted on : Tuesday, July 9, 2013 - 12:35:33 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, October 20, 2021 - 3:19:19 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, October 10, 2013 - 4:09:29 AM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00842756, version 1

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Anass Bouchiba. EVALUATION DE DYSFONCTIONNEMENT D'UN SYSTEME PAR APPROCHE BAYESIENNE : CAS DU SYSTEME FERROVIAIRE. Sciences de l'ingénieur [physics]. Université d'Angers, 2013. Français. ⟨NNT : ⟩. ⟨tel-00842756⟩

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