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Analyse de trajectoires, perte d'autonomie et facteurs prédictifs : Modélisation de trajectoires

Abstract : The increase in life expectancy of baby boom generations in developed countries would often be accompanied by functional limitations, disability, increasingly observed in the geriatric population. The general objective of this thesis was to contribute to the knowledge of the evolution of the functional independence of older people in a heterogeneous population. First, it was to identify homogeneous groups in a heterogeneous population of elderly people following the same functional independence trajectory over a two-year period, and potential predictive factors. Second, it was to analyze the clinical consequences of trajectories and patient survival over the same observation period. The SMAF (Système de Mesure de l'Autonomie Fonctionnelle) and ADL (Activities of Daily Living) scales were used as indicators for measuring independence. Analysis were performed from a sample of 221 patients of UPSAV (Unit for Prevention, Monitoring and Analysis of Aging) cohort. We used three methods including trajectory analysis including GBTM (Group-Based Trajectory Modeling), k-means and ascending hierarchical classification. The results suggest three distinct trajectories of functional independence: stable, stable then decline, continuously decline. The predictors of trajectories obtained using logistic regression are socio-demographic, medical and biological criteria. Patients assigned to the loss of independence trajectory (continuously altered trajectory) reported high proportions of injurious falls. Based on a Cox model, neurocognitive disorders, heart failure, involuntary weight loss and alcohol were revealed as predictors of death. We conclude from this work that the two-year longitudinal analysis identified homogeneous subgroups of elderly people in terms of changes in functional independence. The prevention of UPSAV becomes a useful even if the utility level is not the same. Prevention and screening of the loss of independence of the elderly person followed at home must be anticipated in order to delay the deterioration and to maintaining the autonomy. Future analyses should focus on exploring large cohorts of older people to confirm and generalize our research.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, November 5, 2019 - 3:16:18 PM
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Charlotte Bimou. Analyse de trajectoires, perte d'autonomie et facteurs prédictifs : Modélisation de trajectoires. Médecine humaine et pathologie. Université de Limoges, 2019. Français. ⟨NNT : 2019LIMO0030⟩. ⟨tel-02337708v2⟩



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