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              <p>The faster the knowledge of the evolution of the future economic situation, the better the political and economic decision-makers will be able to set up efficient strategies at the national and regional level. This first postulate announces a problem that can be translated as follows: how to effectively analyze the economic situation in terms of unemployment? This thesis seeks to create a baseline dating of the employment cycle of French job seekers. The characteristics of the cycle are measured as well as the timing identifying idiosyncratic behaviors. Then, we develop a monthly forecasting model based on job seeker data collected by Pôle Emploi in order to inform the public policy maker.</p>
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              <p>Plus la connaissance de l'évolution de la situation de l'économie à venir est rapide, plus les décideurs politiques et économiques pourront mettre en place des stratégies efficaces au niveau national et régional. Ce premier postulat annonce une problématique qui se traduit comme suit ; comment analyser de manière efficace la conjoncture au niveau du chômage ? Cette thèse s’emploie à créer une datation de référence du cycle d’emploi des demandeurs d’emploi français. Les caractéristiques du cycle sont mesurées ainsi que la synchronisation identifiant les comportements idiosyncratiques. Puis, nous élaborons un modèle de prévision mensuelle à partir des données des demandeurs d’emploi collectées par Pôle Emploi afin d’éclairer le décideur public.</p>
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