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Politique de réduction de la pauvreté en situation post-conflit

Abstract : The objective of this thesis is to contribute as well on the theoretical level as empirical to the research on the links between the macro-economic policies and the social indicators and that in a context of the post-conflict country, the case of Rwanda.The main issue raised here to know what is really the economic policies which can be set up in a country post-conflict in order to reduce poverty within the households? Our thesis is based on two assumptions: First, the economic reforms should converge towards the economic growth and the reduction of poverty in the only condition which this growth is equitably distributed. In addition, we consider the political good-will and the stable macroeconomic environment.It is clear that it is difficult for a poor country as Rwanda which underwent during four years of the ethnic conflicts leading to a genocide waits at intervals of fast growth of its GDP per capita without setting up a parallel program of family planning in order to reduce the growth rate of its population estimated currently at 2,9%. It s required also a solid program of the social sectors through the education and the health.To try to answer this question, we used the Model developed by the World Bank called Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Model . PAMS is a model which link the households survey to the macro-economic framework. It s evaluate the impact of macro-economic policies - in particular those associated the strategies of reduction of poverty - on employment with the centre of the various socio-economic groups, the households s income, the incidence of poverty and the distribution of income.This thesis is articulated on four chapters; the first one which tried to the poverty under all its dimensions, it weaves the difference between the thresholds of poverty according to various authors; it analyzes then and measures the indicators relating to poverty. This first part of the thesis also makes the overall picture of the empirical literature in context of poverty, etc; finally, it defined and analyzes the Millenium Development Goals, and set out the level that Rwanda reached and the challenges to reach the vision 2020.The second chapter try to set out the links between economic growth and monetary and non monetary dimensions of poverty; it examine the inequalities resulting from this growth . It presents and analyzes briefly the evolution of the certain macroeconomic aggregates and principal measurements of economic policies in post-conflict context. The third chapter analyzes the decade 1990-2000, it makes initially the diagnosis of the year 1990, it analyzes different macro-economic incoherencies on which Rwanda Government was faced too during the period, the impact of the international community, the principal products of exports of Rwanda (coffee and tea), it makes then an outline on the political tendencies and the origin of the genocide of 1994 in Rwanda and the effects of this one on the socio-economic situation; this chapter releases the role of the international community in the genocide and finally compares the results of the economic reforms in end period 1990- 1995-2000. The fourth chapter finally brings additional information on the links between the growth and the poverty reduction using PAMS. This chapter makes simulations on the economic policies and judges the effect on poverty against different external shocks, the goal being not to reduce the poverty of half in a 2020, poverty located at 60% in 2003 but a scenario much more realistic to reduce poverty to 45, 6% in 2020.From the reference scenario, other simulations of economic policy were made by analyzing their effects on poverty and inequalities among different quintiles. We selected five of them:(I) modification of the volume of exports; (II) increase in the agricultural production; (III) the rise of the civil servant salaries and; (iv) modification of the composition of GDP growth and finally, to take an economic socio group like target of economic policy. In conclusion, this analytical work formulated some simulations and recommendations within the macroeconomic framework.
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Tembo Rachid Maburuki Bahati. Politique de réduction de la pauvreté en situation post-conflit. Economies et finances. Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I, 2006. Français. ⟨NNT : 2006CLF10293⟩. ⟨tel-00688664⟩



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