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Espaces à enjeux et effets de réseaux dans les systèmes de risques : Région Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, Département du Var, Métropole de Marseille et Métropole de Barcelone

Abstract : Territories are innervated by a multitude of networks on which modern lifestyles have been built up as well as the functioning of society as a whole; such dependence of society towards them is coupled with an interdependence between those territories, in view of the fact that because of their structure, energy, telecommunications, water, drainage and circulation networks integrate different territories into a common system. Therefore, the following hypothesis can be put forward: developing networks goes hand in hand with developing the vulnerability of territories. Such multi-level interdependence tends to make risk situations more complex, and anticipating risk systems and detecting strategic areas is carried out in a context of high uncertainty. The fact that the retrospective, spatial and technical knowledge of thess risk systems is incomplete, imprecise and uncertain is all the more constraining for that approach. In spite of the foregoing, in order to attain a satisfactory level of predictability and anticipation, spatial modelling of risk systems should therefore be able to integrate various types of domino effect and envisage the numerous possible paths followed by the spatial diffusion of unknown factors. In such a possibilist context, spatial modelling of risk systems and the detection of strategic areas is based on the original articulation of four concepts related to risk analysis and system stability: susceptibility, criticality, resilience and dependence, which we designate by the acronym SCReD. Assessing territorial properties is carried out through geomatics processing taking into account uncertainty and imprecision, and leads to the delimitation of risk areas, influenced among others by the concept of vague geographical areas. The approach, which is oriented both towards the theoretical and the operational, is based on the understanding of the links between the vulnerability of territories, vulnerability of networks and vulnerability of populations. These methods are applied retrospectively to the cases of Barcelona and the Var département, and in the case of Marseille with an anticipative approach in order to detect strategic areas. The risk systems associated to these applications may be diversely complex and be triggered by different kinds of unknown factors; in the case of Barcelona, it is a power cut; in the case of the Var are also taken into account interactions between the network-territory system and natural occurrences such as fires and snow storms. In the case of Marseille, the risk systems are triggered by floods. In the examples proposed, the spatialization methods of risk systems become progressively more complex, taking into account uncertainty and imprecision in an increasingly explicit manner. Then results appear, more qualified, the spatial limits of risk systems become less marked and lose in terms of clarity what they gain in terms of accuracy.
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  • HAL Id : tel-00785772, version 2



Jérôme Dutozia. Espaces à enjeux et effets de réseaux dans les systèmes de risques : Région Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, Département du Var, Métropole de Marseille et Métropole de Barcelone. Histoire. Université Nice Sophia Antipolis, 2013. Français. ⟨NNT : 2013NICE2026⟩. ⟨tel-00785772v2⟩



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